![]() In their last adventure, all Sorcerers, no matter their rank, heard a strange voice in their heads that led them astray from the main group. On this pilgrimage, they are mentored by Sorcerer Zaphiel. If this event operates like the previous version of this did, then we are not being presented with three random chests out of nine, but rather with 1 of 4 1 SK, 1 of 3 2 SK, and 1 of 2 3 SK chests. Sorcerer Apprentices undertake a long journey every year to close dangerous crevices and gain knowledge along the way. One nearing the end of Woodelves, one nearing the end of Orcs, and one that just started Ch. Under expected strategy, you would never pick the last 4 (45 (no SK), 54, 32 and 30), as there would always be a 3 SK chest available that is better. In a similar tangent to what The Unbeliever said, I have three cities. Under Face strategy, you would take 45 (no SK) ahead of either 3 SK, and 54 ahead of 89.ĥ0% (32 or 30 as the 1 SK) * 33% (45 (no SK) as the 2 SK) you would take the less efficient 45 (no SK) over either 3 SK, for a reduction of 0.83 return.ĥ0% (32 or 30 as the 1 SK) * 33% (54 as the 2 SK) * 50% (89 as the 3 SK) you would take the less efficient 54 over the 89, for a reduction of 0.83 return. That's 16.67% chance reduction by 0.83, and 8.33% chance reduction by 0.83, for an overall reduction in return of about 0.2 SK/Flag. That's a less than 1% inefficiency, so small potatoes. Didn't expect it to matter that little.Ĭomparatively, the underestimation being applied by only looking at Face value, means that if one were to look at the results at the end of the event, they would be left thinking that they came out way ahead of what they thought they would get. I would be wary of using the term pseudo-random the way you are here, as it is commonly used with a very specific meaning in computing to describe a sequence that is statistically indistinguishable to random to some level while in fact being completely deterministic if you know the starting state. It is also important to remember that very few methods of generating a random number in a computer are truly random. Most are in fact pseudo random generators.
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